Sunday, August 15, 2010
About Us Forex Investments Fund...
Forex Investment Fund (FIF) is a high yield, private loan program, backed up by Bonds, Forex, Gold, Stocks trading, and investing in various funds and activities all over the world. Our mission is to provide our investors with a great opportunity for their funds by investing as prudently as possible in various arenas to gain a high rates in return. We are a successful group of private individuals who have made our money through prudent investments in the finance industry on a worldwide basis for over 8 years. Honestly, please do not compare us to something like "HYIP" programs or "games" that are always coming and going. Besides, we do have a reliable and profitable source of real net income, based on the real investment from the real market.That means, we are able to pay our investors for as many years as they choose to remain with us, whether or not any new investors ever join. Our team has been proudly owned and operated since June 1998 participating in many online and offline ventures, resulting in great margins of profit for the investor teams and the sole investors. We are a group of private individuals that have been in the investment arena for over 8 years, most of our investor teammates are professional bankers, some of them have years of business and financial related experience. We are the serious people who are running the serious business. Our group is made up of American, Asian, Australian, Canadian, European people, thus we are able to watch all the different markets almost 24 hours a day.No matter how good trade records we have been made, we are just helping ourself only. We have seen many people suffer loses from various internet opportunities that can not meet their promises, thus we feel that there is a need for people like you to make a steady gain in income without risking large amounts of money. That is the reason why Forex Investment Fund (FIF) was born.
Forex Market Overview...
Introduction
The following facts and figures relate to the foreign exchange market. Much of the information is drawn from the 2007 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in April 2007. 54 central banks and monetary authorities participated in the survey, collecting information from approximately 1280 market participants.
Excerpt from the BIS:
"The 2007 survey shows an unprecedented rise in activity in traditional foreign exchange markets compared to 2004. Average daily turnover rose to $3.2 trillion in April 2007, an increase of 71% at current exchange rates and 65% at constant exchange rates...Against the background of low levels of financial market volatility and risk aversion, market participants point to a significant expansion in the activity of investor groups including hedge funds, which was partly facilitated by substantial growth in the use of prime brokerage, and retail investors...A marked increase in the levels of technical trading – most notably algorithmic trading – is also likely to have boosted turnover in the spot market...Transactions between reporting dealers and non-reporting financial institutions, such as hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies, more than doubled between April 2004 and April 2007 and contributed more than half of the increase in aggregate turnover." - BIS
Structure
* Decentralised 'interbank' market
* Main participants: Central Banks, commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, corporations & private speculators
* The free-floating currency system arose from the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971
* Online trading began in the mid to late 1990's
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Trading Hours
* 24 hour market
* Sunday 5pm EST through Friday 4pm EST.
* Trading begins in the Asia-Pacific region followed by the Middle East, Europe, and America
Size
* One of the largest financial markets in the world
* $3.2 trillion average daily turnover, equivalent to:
o More than 10 times the average daily turnover of global equity markets1
o More than 35 times the average daily turnover of the NYSE2
o Nearly $500 a day for every man, woman, and child on earth3
o An annual turnover more than 10 times world GDP4
* The spot market accounts for just under one-third of daily turnover
1. About $280 billion - World Federation of Exchanges aggregate 2006
2. About $87 billion - World Federation of Exchanges 2006
3. Based on world population of 6.6 billion - US Census Bureau
4. About $48 trillion - World Bank 2006.
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Major Markets
* The US & UK markets account for just over 50% of turnover
* Major markets: London, New York, Tokyo
* Trading activity is heaviest when major markets overlap5
* Nearly two-thirds of NY activity occurs in the morning hours while European markets are open6
5. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal Reserve
6. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal Reserve
Average Daily Turnover by Geographic Location
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Concentration in the Banking Industry
* 12 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.K.
* 10 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.S.
* 3 banks account for 75% of turnover in Switzerland
* 9 banks account for 75% of turnover in Japan
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Technical Analysis
Commonly used technical indicators:
* Moving averages
* RSI
* Fibonacci retracements
* Stochastics
* MACD
* Momentum
* Bollinger bands
* Pivot point
* Elliott Wave
Currencies
* The US dollar is involved in over 80% of all foreign exchange transactions, equivalent to over US$2.7 trillion per day
Currency Codes
* USD = US Dollar
* EUR = Euro
* JPY = Japanese Yen
* GBP = British Pound
* CHF = Swiss Franc
* CAD = Canadian Dollar (Sometimes referred to as the "Loonie")
* AUD = Australian Dollar
* NZD = New Zealand Dollar
Average Daily Turnover by Currency
N.B. Because two currencies are involved in each transaction, the sum of the percentage shares of individual currencies totals 200% instead of 100%.
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Currency Pairs
* Majors: EUR/USD (Euro-Dollar), USD/JPY, GBP/USD - (commonly referred to as the "Cable"), USD/CHF
* Dollar bloc: USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - (commonly referred to as the "Kiwi")
* Major crosses: EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF
Average Daily Turnover by Currency Pair
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
The following facts and figures relate to the foreign exchange market. Much of the information is drawn from the 2007 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in April 2007. 54 central banks and monetary authorities participated in the survey, collecting information from approximately 1280 market participants.
Excerpt from the BIS:
"The 2007 survey shows an unprecedented rise in activity in traditional foreign exchange markets compared to 2004. Average daily turnover rose to $3.2 trillion in April 2007, an increase of 71% at current exchange rates and 65% at constant exchange rates...Against the background of low levels of financial market volatility and risk aversion, market participants point to a significant expansion in the activity of investor groups including hedge funds, which was partly facilitated by substantial growth in the use of prime brokerage, and retail investors...A marked increase in the levels of technical trading – most notably algorithmic trading – is also likely to have boosted turnover in the spot market...Transactions between reporting dealers and non-reporting financial institutions, such as hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies, more than doubled between April 2004 and April 2007 and contributed more than half of the increase in aggregate turnover." - BIS
Structure
* Decentralised 'interbank' market
* Main participants: Central Banks, commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, corporations & private speculators
* The free-floating currency system arose from the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971
* Online trading began in the mid to late 1990's
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Trading Hours
* 24 hour market
* Sunday 5pm EST through Friday 4pm EST.
* Trading begins in the Asia-Pacific region followed by the Middle East, Europe, and America
Size
* One of the largest financial markets in the world
* $3.2 trillion average daily turnover, equivalent to:
o More than 10 times the average daily turnover of global equity markets1
o More than 35 times the average daily turnover of the NYSE2
o Nearly $500 a day for every man, woman, and child on earth3
o An annual turnover more than 10 times world GDP4
* The spot market accounts for just under one-third of daily turnover
1. About $280 billion - World Federation of Exchanges aggregate 2006
2. About $87 billion - World Federation of Exchanges 2006
3. Based on world population of 6.6 billion - US Census Bureau
4. About $48 trillion - World Bank 2006.
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Major Markets
* The US & UK markets account for just over 50% of turnover
* Major markets: London, New York, Tokyo
* Trading activity is heaviest when major markets overlap5
* Nearly two-thirds of NY activity occurs in the morning hours while European markets are open6
5. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal Reserve
6. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal Reserve
Average Daily Turnover by Geographic Location
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Concentration in the Banking Industry
* 12 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.K.
* 10 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.S.
* 3 banks account for 75% of turnover in Switzerland
* 9 banks account for 75% of turnover in Japan
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Technical Analysis
Commonly used technical indicators:
* Moving averages
* RSI
* Fibonacci retracements
* Stochastics
* MACD
* Momentum
* Bollinger bands
* Pivot point
* Elliott Wave
Currencies
* The US dollar is involved in over 80% of all foreign exchange transactions, equivalent to over US$2.7 trillion per day
Currency Codes
* USD = US Dollar
* EUR = Euro
* JPY = Japanese Yen
* GBP = British Pound
* CHF = Swiss Franc
* CAD = Canadian Dollar (Sometimes referred to as the "Loonie")
* AUD = Australian Dollar
* NZD = New Zealand Dollar
Average Daily Turnover by Currency
N.B. Because two currencies are involved in each transaction, the sum of the percentage shares of individual currencies totals 200% instead of 100%.
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Currency Pairs
* Majors: EUR/USD (Euro-Dollar), USD/JPY, GBP/USD - (commonly referred to as the "Cable"), USD/CHF
* Dollar bloc: USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - (commonly referred to as the "Kiwi")
* Major crosses: EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF
Average Daily Turnover by Currency Pair
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007
Foreign Exchange Market From Wikipedia...
The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest market in the world, in terms of cash value traded, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. Retail traders (small speculators) are a small part of this market. They may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks and may be targets of forex scams.
Contents
* Market size and liquidity
* Trading characteristics
* Market participants
o Banks
o Commercial Companies
o Central Banks
o Investment Management Firms
o Hedge Funds
o Retail Forex Brokers
* Speculation
* Reference
* See also
* External links
Market size and liquidity
The foreign exchange market is unique because of:
* its trading volume,
* the extreme liquidity of the market,
* the large number of, and variety of, traders in the market,
* its geographical dispersion,
* its long trading hours - 24 hours a day (except on weekends).
* the variety of factors that affect exchange rates,
Average daily international foreign exchange trading volume was $1.9 trillion in April 2004 according to the BIS study Triennial Central Bank Survey 2004
* $600 billion spot
* $1,300 billion in derivatives, ie
o $200 billion in outright forwards
o $1,000 billion in forex swaps
o $100 billion in FX options.
Exchange-traded forex futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Forex futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, but only accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).
Top 10 Currency Traders % of overall volume, May 2005 Rank Name % of volume
1 Deutsche Bank 17.0
2 UBS 12.5
3 Citigroup 7.5
4 HSBC 6.4
5 Barclays 5.9
6 Merrill Lynch 5.7
7 J.P. Morgan Chase 5.3
8 Goldman Sachs 4.4
9 ABN AMRO 4.2
10 Morgan Stanley 3.9
The ten most active traders account for almost 73% of trading volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe, (2/9/06 p. 20). These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market-maker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale customer. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually only 1-3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually $1,000,000.
These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100 / 1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000 / 1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' cheques. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 5 pips wide (i.e. 0.0005). Competition has greatly increased with pip spreads shrinking on the majors to as little as 1 to 1.5 pips.
Trading characteristics
There is no single unified foreign exchange market. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currency instruments are traded. This implies that there is no such thing as a single dollar rate - but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs.
Top 6 Most Traded Currencies Rank Currency ISO 4217 Code Symbol
1 United States dollar USD $
2 Eurozone euro EUR €
3 Japanese yen JPY ¥
4 British pound sterling GBP £
5-6 Swiss franc CHF -
5-6 Australian dollar AUD $
The main trading centers are in London, New York, and Tokyo, but banks throughout the world participate. As the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, then the US session, and then the Asian begin in their turns. Traders can react to news when it breaks, rather than waiting for the market to open.
There is little or no 'inside information' in the foreign exchange markets. Exchange rate fluctuations are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, budget and trade deficits or surpluses, and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers order flow. Trading legend Richard Dennis has accused central bankers of leaking information to hedge funds. [1]
Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally noted XXX/YYY, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX currency is expressed. For instance, EUR/USD is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, as in 1 euro = 1.2045 dollar.
On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:
* EUR/USD - 28 %
* USD/JPY - 17 %
* GBP/USD (also called cable) - 14 %
and the US currency was involved in 89% of transactions, followed by the euro (37%), the yen (20%) and sterling (17%). (Note that volume percentages should add up to 200% - 100% for all the sellers, and 100% for all the buyers). Although trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, the foreign exchange market is thus still largely dollar-centered. For instance, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ will usually involve two trades: EUR/USD and USD/ZZZ. The only exception to this is EUR/JPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market.
Market participants
According to the BIS study Triennial Central Bank Survey 2004
* 53% of transactions were strictly interdealer (ie interbank);
* 33% involved a dealer (ie a bank) and a fund manager or some other non-bank financial institution;
* and only 14% were between a dealer and a non-financial company.
Banks
The interbank market caters for both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. A large bank may trade billions of dollars daily. Some of this trading is undertaken on behalf of customers, but much is conducted by proprietary desks, trading for the bank's own account.
Until recently, foreign exchange brokers did large amounts of business, facilitating interbank trading and matching anonymous counterparts for small fees. Today, however, much of this business has moved on to more efficient electronic systems, such as EBS, Reuters Dealing 3000 Matching (D2), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Bloomberg and TradeBook(R). The broker squawk box lets traders listen in on ongoing interbank trading and is heard in most trading rooms, but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a few years ago.
Commercial Companies
An important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies seeking foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of banks or speculators, and their trades often have little short term impact on market rates. Nevertheless, trade flows are an important factor in the long-term direction of a currency's exchange rate. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very large positions are covered due to exposures that are not widely known by other market participants.
Central Banks
National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often substantial foreign exchange reserves, to stabilize the market. Milton Friedman argued that the best stabilization strategy would be for central banks to buy when the exchange rate is too low, and to sell when the rate is too high - that is, to trade for a profit. Nevertheless, central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.
The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives, however. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992-93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in South East Asia.
Investment Management Firms
Investment Management firms (who typically manage large accounts on behalf of customers such as pension funds, endowments etc.) use the Foreign exchange market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager with an international equity portfolio will need to buy and sell foreign currencies in the spot market in order to pay for purchases of foreign equities. Since the forex transactions are secondary to the actual investment decision, they are not seen as speculative or aimed at profit-maximisation.
Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist currency overlay units, which manage clients' currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. The number of this type of specialist is quite small, their large assets under management (AUM) can lead to large trades.
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds, such as George Soros's Quantum fund have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1990. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.
Retail Forex Brokers
Retail forex brokers or market makers handle a minute fraction of the total volume of the foreign exchange market. According to CNN, one retail broker estimates retail volume at $25-50 billion daily, [2]which is about 2% of the whole market. CNN also quotes an official of the National Futures Association "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically."
All firms offering foreign exchange trading online are either market makers or facilitate the placing of trades with market makers.
In the retail forex industry market makers often have two separate trading desks- one that actually trades foreign exchange (which determines the firm's own net position in the market, serving as both a proprietary trading desk and a means of offsetting client trades on the interbank market) and one used for off-exchange trading with retail customers (called the "dealing desk" or "trading desk").
Many retail FX market makers claim to "offset" clients' trades on the interbank market (that is, with other larger market makers), e.g. after buying from the client, they sell to a bank. Nevertheless, the large majority of retail currency speculators are novices and who lose money [3], so that the market makers would be giving up large profits by offsetting. Offsetting does occur, but only when the market maker judges its clients' net position as being very risky.
The dealing desk operates much like the currency exchange counter at a bank. Interbank exchange rates, which are displayed at the dealing desk, are adjusted to incorporate spreads (so that the market maker will make a profit) before they are displayed to retail customers. Prices shown by the market maker do not neccesarily reflect interbank market rates. Arbitrage opportunities may exist, but retail market makers are efficient at removing arbitrageurs from their systems or limiting their trades.
A limited number of retail forex brokers offer consumers direct access to the interbank forex market. But most do not because of the limited number of clearing banks willing to process small orders. More importantly, the dealing desk model can be far more profitable, as a large portion of retail traders' losses are directly turned into market maker profits. While the income of a marketmaker that offsets trades or a broker that facilitates transactions is limited to transaction fees (commissions), dealing desk brokers can generate income in a variety of ways because they not only control the trading process, they also control pricing which they can skew at any time to maximize profits.
The rules of the game in trading FX are highly disadvantageous for retail speculators. Most retail speculators in FX lack trading experience and and capital (account minimums at some firms are as low as 250-500 USD). Large minimum position sizes, which on most retail platforms ranges from $10,000 to $100,000, force small traders to take imprudently large positions using extremely high leverage. Professional forex traders rarely use more than 10:1 leverage, yet many retail Forex firms default client accounts to 100:1 or even 200:1, without disclosing that this is highly unusual for currency traders. This drastically increases the risk of a margin call (which, if the speculator's trade is not offset, is pure profit for the market maker).
According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' " [4]
In the US, "it is unlawful to offer foreign currency futures and option contracts to retail customers unless the offeror is a regulated financial entity" according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [5]. Legitimate retail brokers serving traders in the U.S. are most often registered with the CFTC as "futures commission merchants" (FCMs) and are members of the National Futures Association (NFA). Potential clients can check the broker's FCM status at the NFA. Retail forex brokers are much less regulated than stock brokers and there is no protection similar to that from the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. The CFTC has noted an increase in forex scams [6].
Speculation
Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Nevertheless, many economists (e.g. Milton Friedman) argue that speculators perform the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do. Other economists (e.g. Joseph Stiglitz) however, may consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.
Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators.
Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries. While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not, according to this view. It is simply gambling, that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 150% per annum, and later to devalue the krona. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is one well known proponent of this view [7]. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.
Gregory Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.
In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and forex speculators only made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions.
Contents
* Market size and liquidity
* Trading characteristics
* Market participants
o Banks
o Commercial Companies
o Central Banks
o Investment Management Firms
o Hedge Funds
o Retail Forex Brokers
* Speculation
* Reference
* See also
* External links
Market size and liquidity
The foreign exchange market is unique because of:
* its trading volume,
* the extreme liquidity of the market,
* the large number of, and variety of, traders in the market,
* its geographical dispersion,
* its long trading hours - 24 hours a day (except on weekends).
* the variety of factors that affect exchange rates,
Average daily international foreign exchange trading volume was $1.9 trillion in April 2004 according to the BIS study Triennial Central Bank Survey 2004
* $600 billion spot
* $1,300 billion in derivatives, ie
o $200 billion in outright forwards
o $1,000 billion in forex swaps
o $100 billion in FX options.
Exchange-traded forex futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Forex futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, but only accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).
Top 10 Currency Traders % of overall volume, May 2005 Rank Name % of volume
1 Deutsche Bank 17.0
2 UBS 12.5
3 Citigroup 7.5
4 HSBC 6.4
5 Barclays 5.9
6 Merrill Lynch 5.7
7 J.P. Morgan Chase 5.3
8 Goldman Sachs 4.4
9 ABN AMRO 4.2
10 Morgan Stanley 3.9
The ten most active traders account for almost 73% of trading volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe, (2/9/06 p. 20). These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market-maker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale customer. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually only 1-3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually $1,000,000.
These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100 / 1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000 / 1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' cheques. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 5 pips wide (i.e. 0.0005). Competition has greatly increased with pip spreads shrinking on the majors to as little as 1 to 1.5 pips.
Trading characteristics
There is no single unified foreign exchange market. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currency instruments are traded. This implies that there is no such thing as a single dollar rate - but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs.
Top 6 Most Traded Currencies Rank Currency ISO 4217 Code Symbol
1 United States dollar USD $
2 Eurozone euro EUR €
3 Japanese yen JPY ¥
4 British pound sterling GBP £
5-6 Swiss franc CHF -
5-6 Australian dollar AUD $
The main trading centers are in London, New York, and Tokyo, but banks throughout the world participate. As the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, then the US session, and then the Asian begin in their turns. Traders can react to news when it breaks, rather than waiting for the market to open.
There is little or no 'inside information' in the foreign exchange markets. Exchange rate fluctuations are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, budget and trade deficits or surpluses, and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers order flow. Trading legend Richard Dennis has accused central bankers of leaking information to hedge funds. [1]
Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally noted XXX/YYY, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX currency is expressed. For instance, EUR/USD is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, as in 1 euro = 1.2045 dollar.
On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:
* EUR/USD - 28 %
* USD/JPY - 17 %
* GBP/USD (also called cable) - 14 %
and the US currency was involved in 89% of transactions, followed by the euro (37%), the yen (20%) and sterling (17%). (Note that volume percentages should add up to 200% - 100% for all the sellers, and 100% for all the buyers). Although trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, the foreign exchange market is thus still largely dollar-centered. For instance, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ will usually involve two trades: EUR/USD and USD/ZZZ. The only exception to this is EUR/JPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market.
Market participants
According to the BIS study Triennial Central Bank Survey 2004
* 53% of transactions were strictly interdealer (ie interbank);
* 33% involved a dealer (ie a bank) and a fund manager or some other non-bank financial institution;
* and only 14% were between a dealer and a non-financial company.
Banks
The interbank market caters for both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. A large bank may trade billions of dollars daily. Some of this trading is undertaken on behalf of customers, but much is conducted by proprietary desks, trading for the bank's own account.
Until recently, foreign exchange brokers did large amounts of business, facilitating interbank trading and matching anonymous counterparts for small fees. Today, however, much of this business has moved on to more efficient electronic systems, such as EBS, Reuters Dealing 3000 Matching (D2), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Bloomberg and TradeBook(R). The broker squawk box lets traders listen in on ongoing interbank trading and is heard in most trading rooms, but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a few years ago.
Commercial Companies
An important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies seeking foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of banks or speculators, and their trades often have little short term impact on market rates. Nevertheless, trade flows are an important factor in the long-term direction of a currency's exchange rate. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very large positions are covered due to exposures that are not widely known by other market participants.
Central Banks
National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often substantial foreign exchange reserves, to stabilize the market. Milton Friedman argued that the best stabilization strategy would be for central banks to buy when the exchange rate is too low, and to sell when the rate is too high - that is, to trade for a profit. Nevertheless, central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.
The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives, however. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992-93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in South East Asia.
Investment Management Firms
Investment Management firms (who typically manage large accounts on behalf of customers such as pension funds, endowments etc.) use the Foreign exchange market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager with an international equity portfolio will need to buy and sell foreign currencies in the spot market in order to pay for purchases of foreign equities. Since the forex transactions are secondary to the actual investment decision, they are not seen as speculative or aimed at profit-maximisation.
Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist currency overlay units, which manage clients' currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. The number of this type of specialist is quite small, their large assets under management (AUM) can lead to large trades.
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds, such as George Soros's Quantum fund have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1990. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.
Retail Forex Brokers
Retail forex brokers or market makers handle a minute fraction of the total volume of the foreign exchange market. According to CNN, one retail broker estimates retail volume at $25-50 billion daily, [2]which is about 2% of the whole market. CNN also quotes an official of the National Futures Association "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically."
All firms offering foreign exchange trading online are either market makers or facilitate the placing of trades with market makers.
In the retail forex industry market makers often have two separate trading desks- one that actually trades foreign exchange (which determines the firm's own net position in the market, serving as both a proprietary trading desk and a means of offsetting client trades on the interbank market) and one used for off-exchange trading with retail customers (called the "dealing desk" or "trading desk").
Many retail FX market makers claim to "offset" clients' trades on the interbank market (that is, with other larger market makers), e.g. after buying from the client, they sell to a bank. Nevertheless, the large majority of retail currency speculators are novices and who lose money [3], so that the market makers would be giving up large profits by offsetting. Offsetting does occur, but only when the market maker judges its clients' net position as being very risky.
The dealing desk operates much like the currency exchange counter at a bank. Interbank exchange rates, which are displayed at the dealing desk, are adjusted to incorporate spreads (so that the market maker will make a profit) before they are displayed to retail customers. Prices shown by the market maker do not neccesarily reflect interbank market rates. Arbitrage opportunities may exist, but retail market makers are efficient at removing arbitrageurs from their systems or limiting their trades.
A limited number of retail forex brokers offer consumers direct access to the interbank forex market. But most do not because of the limited number of clearing banks willing to process small orders. More importantly, the dealing desk model can be far more profitable, as a large portion of retail traders' losses are directly turned into market maker profits. While the income of a marketmaker that offsets trades or a broker that facilitates transactions is limited to transaction fees (commissions), dealing desk brokers can generate income in a variety of ways because they not only control the trading process, they also control pricing which they can skew at any time to maximize profits.
The rules of the game in trading FX are highly disadvantageous for retail speculators. Most retail speculators in FX lack trading experience and and capital (account minimums at some firms are as low as 250-500 USD). Large minimum position sizes, which on most retail platforms ranges from $10,000 to $100,000, force small traders to take imprudently large positions using extremely high leverage. Professional forex traders rarely use more than 10:1 leverage, yet many retail Forex firms default client accounts to 100:1 or even 200:1, without disclosing that this is highly unusual for currency traders. This drastically increases the risk of a margin call (which, if the speculator's trade is not offset, is pure profit for the market maker).
According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' " [4]
In the US, "it is unlawful to offer foreign currency futures and option contracts to retail customers unless the offeror is a regulated financial entity" according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [5]. Legitimate retail brokers serving traders in the U.S. are most often registered with the CFTC as "futures commission merchants" (FCMs) and are members of the National Futures Association (NFA). Potential clients can check the broker's FCM status at the NFA. Retail forex brokers are much less regulated than stock brokers and there is no protection similar to that from the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. The CFTC has noted an increase in forex scams [6].
Speculation
Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Nevertheless, many economists (e.g. Milton Friedman) argue that speculators perform the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do. Other economists (e.g. Joseph Stiglitz) however, may consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.
Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators.
Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries. While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not, according to this view. It is simply gambling, that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 150% per annum, and later to devalue the krona. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is one well known proponent of this view [7]. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.
Gregory Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.
In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and forex speculators only made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions.
Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in 2007...
Every three years, the BIS coordinates a global central bank survey of foreign exchange and derivatives market activity on behalf of the Markets Committee and the Committee on the Global Financial System. The objective of the survey is to provide comprehensive and internationally consistent information on turnover and amounts of contracts outstanding in these markets. The exercise also serves as a benchmark for the semiannual OTC derivatives market statistics, which are limited to banks and dealers in the most important financial centres.
The 2007 survey is the seventh one coordinated by the BIS. The first three surveys were limited to the foreign exchange markets (1989, 1992, 1995). Subsequently both the foreign exchange and the derivatives markets have been surveyed (1998, 2001, 2004, 2007). In addition, in 2007 data on credit default swaps were collected for the first time. For the survey, each participating central bank collects data from the banks and dealers in its jurisdiction and calculates aggregate national data. These are provided to the BIS, which compiles global aggregates. The number of participating countries has increased over time.
The 2007 survey
In April 2007, central banks and monetary authorities from 54 countries and jurisdictions collected data on turnover in traditional foreign exchange markets (those for spot, outright forwards and swaps) and in the OTC currency and interest rate derivatives markets. Preliminary results on daily turnover were published in September 2007, and an analysis of the results for the traditional foreign exchange markets was included in the December 2007 issue of the BIS Quarterly Review. The 2007 survey also covered data on amounts outstanding and gross market values of OTC foreign exchange, interest rate, equity, commodity and credit derivatives (including credit default swaps) at the end of June 2007 whose preliminary results were released in November 2007. The full report on the Triennial Central Bank Survey was published by the BIS in December 2007.
The 2007 survey is the seventh one coordinated by the BIS. The first three surveys were limited to the foreign exchange markets (1989, 1992, 1995). Subsequently both the foreign exchange and the derivatives markets have been surveyed (1998, 2001, 2004, 2007). In addition, in 2007 data on credit default swaps were collected for the first time. For the survey, each participating central bank collects data from the banks and dealers in its jurisdiction and calculates aggregate national data. These are provided to the BIS, which compiles global aggregates. The number of participating countries has increased over time.
The 2007 survey
In April 2007, central banks and monetary authorities from 54 countries and jurisdictions collected data on turnover in traditional foreign exchange markets (those for spot, outright forwards and swaps) and in the OTC currency and interest rate derivatives markets. Preliminary results on daily turnover were published in September 2007, and an analysis of the results for the traditional foreign exchange markets was included in the December 2007 issue of the BIS Quarterly Review. The 2007 survey also covered data on amounts outstanding and gross market values of OTC foreign exchange, interest rate, equity, commodity and credit derivatives (including credit default swaps) at the end of June 2007 whose preliminary results were released in November 2007. The full report on the Triennial Central Bank Survey was published by the BIS in December 2007.
Essential Elements of a Successful Trader...
Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain
All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.
You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.
However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.
Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.
Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.
The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.
For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.
The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).
So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.
Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?
If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.
Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus
Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.
To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.
All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.
You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.
However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.
Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.
Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.
The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.
For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.
The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).
So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.
Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?
If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.
Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus
Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.
To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.
Leverage is not even a double-edged sword, it’s a guillotine - and your head is on the block
Dr Forex says - Let me explain to you
once and for all that leverage is not what
brokers allow you to use, it is what you decide to use.
At long last I am at the point where my Bird Watching in Lion Country Newsletter is ready for publication. If you haven’t received one before, don’t start searching amongst your spam filter emails. This is the first newsletter.
Choice of topic is a difficult matter but “leverage” was always high on the priority list for the first issue. Recently I once again realized clearly how misunderstood this vital concept was to all aspects of forex. In my mind there is no doubt that most of the trouble that forex traders have starts with leverage.
I will dedicate this first newsletter then to this concept –
leverage and its destructive power in the retail forex trading world.
A few facts
*
Personally I have not seen one wiped out trading account that wasn’t leveraged too high.
*
I have also no record of any sustained profitable trading account based on high leveraged, short-stop trading.
*
I ask my mentoring clients early on what they believe are the reasons for previous losses. Most answers include something to do with leverage, not understanding it at all, or only partially, or underestimating it once they have understood it.
Leverage then, is …?
I get many questions, like the one below:
I'm reading your book and I'm really enjoying it. Can you provide me with the information where I can get 1:1 leverage with the company you mention on page 108 of your book? I'm using a demo with only $1500 in the account with 200:1 leverage and I'm a bit worried about this even on 1 mini contract with one currency.
Or:
I contacted the broker you suggested where I could trade with less than $10,000 with low leverage, but they only offer 50:1 leverage and not 3:1 like you suggest.
It is very clear that leverage is misunderstood and this misunderstanding is a root cause of forex trading losses and the futile attempts to overcome these losses without addressing the root cause.
Regulatory warnings that leverage is a double-edged sword that can work for or against you go completely unheeded, just as the warning “past performance is no indication of future performance” is flatly ignored.
Leverage is largely misunderstood because the marketing wizards of forex (your friendly forex broker) have done a slight-of-hand trick that shifted the focus from the very important fact of how much the trader levers his trading capital to how much the forex marketing wizard is prepared to lend the trader.
Everything you read about leverage has to do with the maximum leverage you can achieve and very little about the prudent application of leverage in a forex trading system. In other words, the broker is telling you how much he will allow you to leverage, if you want to, not how much you should leverage, if you know better.
Warren Buffet said – “Risk is not knowing what you are doing”.
People speak about 100:1 leverage – “I trade with 100:1”, without knowing what it means. I will show below how you are your greatest enemy by being ignorant about this vital concept. I hope many of you will get a very important “AHA” experience from the newsletter.
Definition of leverage
This is a general definition:
The mechanical power or advantage gained through using a lever.
A definition found at www.investorwords.com says leverage is:
The degree to which an investor or business is utilizing borrowed money.
Closer to forex trading: www.thefreedictionary.com
The use of credit or borrowed funds to improve one's speculative capacity and increase the rate of return from an investment, as in buying securities on margin.
Enter the concept of “margin”. Let’s make sure we understand what margin is:
Definition of margin
The amount of collateral a customer deposits with a broker when borrowing from the broker to buy securities.
This is exactly what you do if you open a forex trading account. You deposit collateral in order to be able to borrow currencies to trade currencies. Actually you don’t have to borrow, but you can if you want to.
The moment that borrowing comes into play it is common knowledge that the amount that the lender will be prepared to lend has certain limitations. Obviously you can’t lend indefinite amounts.
The thing that stumps most traders is the fact that the marketing wizards use the terms “leverage” and “margin” very loosely and interchangeably. This causes a lot of confusion. I believe this is done deliberately because it is in the forex broker’s interest that traders do not see high leverage as a destructive problem but as an opportunity.
Let’s make sure we understand first “leverage” and then “margin”.
To understand leverage properly for trading purposes, let’s use a well-known concept. You want to buy a house, you don’t have the capital available, but you have a salary and can pay instalments on a regular basis, so you go to the bank and borrow money to pay for the house. So you are leveraging your income / salary.
There are limitations based on, amongst others, your income which means the amount you can borrow based on your income will be limited. There is a maximum you can borrow. Obvious, yes, but a very important concept for the lender – the maximum he should lend you in order to get the maximum return on his capital without overexposing himself to risk of default on your side.
(Just a thought from the sideline. If trading forex is mostly with borrowed funds why don’t the brokers ask interest? Think about that …. )
Remember this: The lender is focused on maximums whereas the borrower should be concerned with minimums - borrowing as little as he can but still getting bang for his buck.
Now we turn to your trading account: you want to increase your speculative capacity by leveraging your investment, therefore you borrow money to trade with from your broker.
Before your broker will lend you money you have to put down margin, which you wish to lever. Your broker, being a prudent businessman has calculated his risk beforehand and is quick to tell you what the maximum is he will allow you to borrow from him. In forex it is typically one hundred times your capital but it can also be two hundred times your capital or even four hundred times your capital. This is one part of the equation:
“Dear valued customer, you will be able to leverage your money 100:1, (200:1, 400;1). We hope we can have a long and mutually beneficial relationship.”
The other side of the equation is how much of this available borrowing you want to utilize in your speculative endeavours.
How much leverage you apply is your own decision
and not something the broker can force on to you.
Here is proof:
We are going to start with a stock market example.
You open a trading account with a stockbroker, with say, $10,000. You can buy stocks to the value of $10,000. Let’s say you did. Did you leverage your funds?
No. You didn’t borrow a cent from the broker. You have $10,000 and the value of your stocks when you purchased them was $10,000 (ignore costs for the moment).
How do you calculate your leverage?
You divide your capital into the value of your transaction and express it as a ratio of “value of transaction” : “capital”.
In the above example you divide $10,000 / $10,000 = 1:1
Well, your friendly online stockbroker one day sends you a message that they now allow margined trading and you can borrow funds to purchase stock up to the value of your current stocks. For simplicity sake we say the value of your stocks is still $10,000. In other words you can now buy another $10,000 worth of stocks while your capital input remains $10,000.
You do this after you just received a hot tip and now you have a transaction value of 2 X $10,000 = $20,000 divided by your capital of $10,000 = leverage of 2:1. Or you can choose not to, it depends on you.
Vital for the broker: Maximum leverage allowed
The maximum leverage you can apply (as opposed to how much you want to apply) is your broker’s decision:
The important thing you have to note in the above example is that you have utilized all the leverage you were allowed by the broker. This is vital. The broker takes a huge risk to lend you money and therefore they have certain rules which you must adhere to. There is a limit to what you can borrow from them. In the above example the limit is leverage of 2:1 or seen from another viewpoint margin of 50%. You must have at least half the value of your total transaction available in margin (in other words collateral in case you aren’t as hot a trader as you thought).
Margin is usually expressed as a percentage, while leverage is expressed as a ratio.
The marketing wizards of forex realized that the fact that they can offer very high leverage will be to their advantage to lure online investors from the traditional markets. Furthermore, many online investors’ portfolios were devastated by the 2000 crash and losses of up to 90% of formerly lucrative stock portfolios became commonplace – much of this leveraged through stock option schemes.
As a result they started to tout from the rooftops that leverage of 100:1, 200:1, and with the introduction of mini accounts, even 400:1 and 500:1 was available.
Terms like “trade with 100:1” leverage became the order of the day.
An unsuspecting and clueless online trading public swallowed this hook, line and sinker and were trading with “100:1 and 200:1 leverage”, not understanding what they are doing.
In reality the broker simply said “we will allow you to lever your margin up to 100:1, 200:1 or 400:1 at the absolute maximum, if you utilized all your borrowing power with us.”
But you must remember leverage is a double-edged sword. It can work for you and against you. And so a race started amongst the forex losers out there: where were the highest leverage, lowest margin and narrowest spreads being offered? As if this lethal combination would contribute to success...
So if you go to your friendly broker who offers both 100K lots and 10K mini lots you will find that on 100K lots you usually have a maximum of 100:1 leverage and on mini accounts 200:1 or 400:1.
So that is from the angle of the forex broker: They will allow maximum leverage of 100:1, 200:1, 400:1.
Vital for the trader: Minimum leverage needed
How does leverage look from your (the trader’s) side?
The question from your side is: How much margin do I need to trade a transaction of a certain value? The answer is simple, if they offer that I can lever my funds 100 times, then it is 1 / 100 = 1%, 1 /200 = 0.5%, 1/ 400 = 0.25%.
If we return to the stock market example the question of minimum leverage doesn’t play a role because if you have limited funds it would be prudent to buy low priced stocks in order to be able to invest in a basket of stocks.
But in the forex market where the minimum transaction values were initially 100K or 10K and a shell-shocked online trading public were lured to utilize the “advantages” of the high leverage with accounts of just $2,000 - $3,000 or mini accounts of $200 - $300, the minimum leverage certainly played a role.
To make all of this stick better I am going to use a real example:
A few years ago a now defunct tip service company did a survey on the typical forex trading account trading with 100K lots. The average sized account was an account of $6,000.
There is no question that the average trader will have to borrow money from the broker, ie leverage his funds. The question is “how much”? To do a minimum transaction of 100,000 you divide the 100,000 by 6,000 and there is the answer: 100,000 / 6,000 = 16.67.
In other words, he must borrow 16.67 times his money to do a minimum transaction and thus utilize a minimum leverage of 16.67:1. Just to do one silly trade.
Trading successfully: Know your real leverage
I am not going to be too technical about the exact leverage in these examples.
In reality if you have a US dollar account you should express the transaction value in US dollars before you calculate the exact leverage. So if you trade 100,000 GBPUSD, you actually trade dollars to the value of £100,000 which is at time of writing about $190,000. There is a big difference between $100,000 and $190,000. (As Warren Buffet said: Risk is not knowing what you are doing …)
With the flexibility offered by mini lots (10K), micro lots (1K) and variable lots (any size the trader defines) it is easier these days to determine one’s real leverage because you operate within the extremes of minimum leverage and maximum leverage.
Let’s return to the questions above:
Can you provide me with the information where I can get 1:1 leverage with the company you mention on page 108 of your book? I'm using a demo with only $1500 in the account with 200:1 leverage and I'm a bit worried about this even on 1 mini contract with one currency.
“Can you provide me with the information where I can get 1:1 leverage?”
Considering that leverage is transaction value divided by capital the important aspect is your capital and the minimum position size because to be in a position to trade 1:1 you must have at least the same capital as the minimum transaction. In your case you will have to trade with a broker that offers variable lots or micro lots not larger than 1,500 units.
“I'm using a demo with only $1500 in the account with 200:1 leverage”
You refer here to the maximum leverage or the maximum amount they will allow you to borrow. This is a fixed amount (percentage) applicable to all transactions and it does not affect your transactions at all, as long as you stay within this limit.
“I'm a bit worried about this even on 1 mini contract with one currency.”
First of all there is no need to worry about the “200;1 leverage”. It simply means it is the maximum you are allowed to trade, not what you are forced to trade (it’s your choice!). To trade the maximum would really be silly. Your real leverage if you trade one mini contract with $1,500 will be in the region of 6:1 or 7:1. (10,000 / 1,500).
It is interesting that you mention one currency also, because you must know that if you simultaneously trade 2 or 3 currencies your leverage increases. Say you trade one mini lot EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF, the total value of units = 30,000 (3 mini lots) and your capital is still $1,500.
Your leverage is thus 30,000 / 1,500 = 20:1. That’s high. You borrow 20 times what you have.
To trade forex profitably you need a $3.00
calculator not $300.00 a month charting service.
Here is the proof:
Let’s talk about the 200:1 “leverage”.
I hope by now you understand that this refers to the maximum the marketing wizard will allow you to borrow and that you can borrow much less to keep your leverage sane and your account afloat. But if you go to that extreme you must be really desperate or stupid and for all practical purposes you are already on the way out.
So what the forex marketing wizards call “leverage” is actually the margin requirement expressed as a ratio instead of as a percentage, which makes more sense and has absolutely no impact on your trading, unless you are already basically wiped out or about to be.
Let’s say a trader has $10,000 and trades at a broker which offers “flexible leverage”.
You can choose your “leverage”, 400:1, 200:1, 100:1 or 50:1. What they mean is you can choose your margin requirement (which will define the maximum you can borrow from them) to be 0.25%, 0.5%, 1% or 2% of the transaction value.
Trader decides to buy 5 mini lots EURUSD, ie €50,000 transaction value and the value of one pip on this transaction is $5.00. Let’s say he makes 100 pips profit which is $500 or 5% of his capital.
Does the flexible margin requirement, generally called “leverage” affect this outcome?
The answer is “no”.
*
Leverage = 400:1 = 0.25% = $25 X 5 = $125. After 100 pips move the Trader makes $500.
*
Leverage = 200:1 = 0.50% = $50 X 5 = $250. After 100 pips move the Trader makes $500.
*
Leverage = 100:1 = 1.00% = $100 X 5 = $500. After 100 pips move the Trader makes $500.
*
Leverage = 50:1 = 2.00% = $200 X 5 = $1000. After 100 pips move the Trader makes $500.
It is vitally important that you grasp this:
The only variable in this whole trading exercise is the real leverage, not the margin requirement.
In the example above the market moved 100 pips irrespective of the margin required.
The only differentiating factor is how much the trader borrows out of what is available. Depending on how much trader borrows he will have a different outcome.
In the example he borrowed 5 times his capital, was levered 5:1 and made $500.00. If he borrowed ten times his capital and was levered 10:1, he would have made on the same market move $1,000 or 10% of his capital. If he borrowed two times his capital 2:1, 2% and so on.
Margin – Leverage - Risk
People incorrectly think the risk they take has to do with the margin requirement, forex marketing wizard’s “leverage”.
How many times have you come across money management or risk management systems that say you must not risk more than x% of your capital on a trade?
Let’s say our Trader used this technique and he doesn’t “risk more than 10% of his capital” on a trade.
In the example above in the case of 2% margin (50:1 “leverage”) the Trader “uses” 10% of his capital (as margin). (Hopefully you now realize that in reality he risks his capital 10 times!)
So if the approach is that the risk is determined in terms of the margin that is being “put up” on a per trade basis the following applies: Out with the calculators!
Trader has $10,000 and is prepared to "risk 10%"
*
Leverage = 400:1 = 0.25% 10 / .25 = 40. That is, 10% “risk” will be 40 lots or 400K. Real leverage = 400 / 10,000 = 40:1. Pip value = $40.00.
*
Leverage = 200:1 = 0.50% 10 / .50 = 20. That is, 10% “risk” will be 20 lots or 200K. Real leverage = 200 / 10,000 = 20:1. Pip value = $20.00
*
Leverage = 100:1 = 1.00% 10 / 1.00 = 10. That is, 10% “risk” will be 10 lots or 100K. Real leverage = 100 / 10,000 = 10:1. Pip value = $10.00
*
Leverage = 50:1 = 2.00% 10 / 2.00 = 5. That is, 10% “risk” will be 5 lots or 50K. Real leverage = 50 / 10,000 = 5:1. Pip value = $5.00
This same risk management strategy then usually says, don’t risk more than x% of your capital in potential losses, therefore calculate your stop-loss point beforehand as a percentage of capital. So a stop-loss is typically set at 2% or 3% of capital.
In this case, if 2%, the maximum loss value will be $200 (2% of capital of $10,000). But as you have seen now, the first part incorrectly calculates pip value based on a bogus principle (for the leveraged trader), while the trader supposedly “risks” 10% of his capital in all four cases.
*
Leverage = 400:1, Pip value = $40.00, “risk 10%”. The stop-loss of 2% must be 5 pips.
*
Leverage = 200:1, Pip value = $20.00, “risk 10%”. The stop-loss of 2% must be 10 pips.
*
Leverage = 100:1, Pip value = $10.00, “risk 10%”. The stop-loss of 2% must be 20 pips.
*
Leverage = 50:1, Pip value = $5.00, “risk 10%”. The stop-loss of 2% must be 40 pips.
The above clearly demonstrates that a misunderstanding of leverage can be devastating to your chances of success.
It also demonstrates that many so-called money management systems are absolutely bogus - spreadsheet theory - and have nothing to do with real profitable trading.
Suffice it to say that while the “400:1 and 200:1” options aren’t utilized that much you will be tempted by the 100:1 and 50:1 options as suggested by almost all the experts out there, accompanied by the necessary 20, 30 and 40 pip stops that are hit all the time (followed by the inevitable market movement in your initial anticipated direction).
Summary
*
What is usually referred to as leverage is actually the margin required expressed as a ratio if you use all the borrowing power the broker will allow.
*
Real leverage is determined by dividing your capital into the value of your positions.
*
Real leverage can differ from trade to trade and increases with multiple simultaneous trades.
*
Margin required has no influence on your risk if you trade properly with modest leverage within your means and is not to be used as a risk calculating principle.
once and for all that leverage is not what
brokers allow you to use, it is what you decide to use.
At long last I am at the point where my Bird Watching in Lion Country Newsletter is ready for publication. If you haven’t received one before, don’t start searching amongst your spam filter emails. This is the first newsletter.
Choice of topic is a difficult matter but “leverage” was always high on the priority list for the first issue. Recently I once again realized clearly how misunderstood this vital concept was to all aspects of forex. In my mind there is no doubt that most of the trouble that forex traders have starts with leverage.
I will dedicate this first newsletter then to this concept –
leverage and its destructive power in the retail forex trading world.
A few facts
*
Personally I have not seen one wiped out trading account that wasn’t leveraged too high.
*
I have also no record of any sustained profitable trading account based on high leveraged, short-stop trading.
*
I ask my mentoring clients early on what they believe are the reasons for previous losses. Most answers include something to do with leverage, not understanding it at all, or only partially, or underestimating it once they have understood it.
Leverage then, is …?
I get many questions, like the one below:
I'm reading your book and I'm really enjoying it. Can you provide me with the information where I can get 1:1 leverage with the company you mention on page 108 of your book? I'm using a demo with only $1500 in the account with 200:1 leverage and I'm a bit worried about this even on 1 mini contract with one currency.
Or:
I contacted the broker you suggested where I could trade with less than $10,000 with low leverage, but they only offer 50:1 leverage and not 3:1 like you suggest.
It is very clear that leverage is misunderstood and this misunderstanding is a root cause of forex trading losses and the futile attempts to overcome these losses without addressing the root cause.
Regulatory warnings that leverage is a double-edged sword that can work for or against you go completely unheeded, just as the warning “past performance is no indication of future performance” is flatly ignored.
Leverage is largely misunderstood because the marketing wizards of forex (your friendly forex broker) have done a slight-of-hand trick that shifted the focus from the very important fact of how much the trader levers his trading capital to how much the forex marketing wizard is prepared to lend the trader.
Everything you read about leverage has to do with the maximum leverage you can achieve and very little about the prudent application of leverage in a forex trading system. In other words, the broker is telling you how much he will allow you to leverage, if you want to, not how much you should leverage, if you know better.
Warren Buffet said – “Risk is not knowing what you are doing”.
People speak about 100:1 leverage – “I trade with 100:1”, without knowing what it means. I will show below how you are your greatest enemy by being ignorant about this vital concept. I hope many of you will get a very important “AHA” experience from the newsletter.
Definition of leverage
This is a general definition:
The mechanical power or advantage gained through using a lever.
A definition found at www.investorwords.com says leverage is:
The degree to which an investor or business is utilizing borrowed money.
Closer to forex trading: www.thefreedictionary.com
The use of credit or borrowed funds to improve one's speculative capacity and increase the rate of return from an investment, as in buying securities on margin.
Enter the concept of “margin”. Let’s make sure we understand what margin is:
Definition of margin
The amount of collateral a customer deposits with a broker when borrowing from the broker to buy securities.
This is exactly what you do if you open a forex trading account. You deposit collateral in order to be able to borrow currencies to trade currencies. Actually you don’t have to borrow, but you can if you want to.
The moment that borrowing comes into play it is common knowledge that the amount that the lender will be prepared to lend has certain limitations. Obviously you can’t lend indefinite amounts.
The thing that stumps most traders is the fact that the marketing wizards use the terms “leverage” and “margin” very loosely and interchangeably. This causes a lot of confusion. I believe this is done deliberately because it is in the forex broker’s interest that traders do not see high leverage as a destructive problem but as an opportunity.
Let’s make sure we understand first “leverage” and then “margin”.
To understand leverage properly for trading purposes, let’s use a well-known concept. You want to buy a house, you don’t have the capital available, but you have a salary and can pay instalments on a regular basis, so you go to the bank and borrow money to pay for the house. So you are leveraging your income / salary.
There are limitations based on, amongst others, your income which means the amount you can borrow based on your income will be limited. There is a maximum you can borrow. Obvious, yes, but a very important concept for the lender – the maximum he should lend you in order to get the maximum return on his capital without overexposing himself to risk of default on your side.
(Just a thought from the sideline. If trading forex is mostly with borrowed funds why don’t the brokers ask interest? Think about that …. )
Remember this: The lender is focused on maximums whereas the borrower should be concerned with minimums - borrowing as little as he can but still getting bang for his buck.
Now we turn to your trading account: you want to increase your speculative capacity by leveraging your investment, therefore you borrow money to trade with from your broker.
Before your broker will lend you money you have to put down margin, which you wish to lever. Your broker, being a prudent businessman has calculated his risk beforehand and is quick to tell you what the maximum is he will allow you to borrow from him. In forex it is typically one hundred times your capital but it can also be two hundred times your capital or even four hundred times your capital. This is one part of the equation:
“Dear valued customer, you will be able to leverage your money 100:1, (200:1, 400;1). We hope we can have a long and mutually beneficial relationship.”
The other side of the equation is how much of this available borrowing you want to utilize in your speculative endeavours.
How much leverage you apply is your own decision
and not something the broker can force on to you.
Here is proof:
We are going to start with a stock market example.
You open a trading account with a stockbroker, with say, $10,000. You can buy stocks to the value of $10,000. Let’s say you did. Did you leverage your funds?
No. You didn’t borrow a cent from the broker. You have $10,000 and the value of your stocks when you purchased them was $10,000 (ignore costs for the moment).
How do you calculate your leverage?
You divide your capital into the value of your transaction and express it as a ratio of “value of transaction” : “capital”.
In the above example you divide $10,000 / $10,000 = 1:1
Well, your friendly online stockbroker one day sends you a message that they now allow margined trading and you can borrow funds to purchase stock up to the value of your current stocks. For simplicity sake we say the value of your stocks is still $10,000. In other words you can now buy another $10,000 worth of stocks while your capital input remains $10,000.
You do this after you just received a hot tip and now you have a transaction value of 2 X $10,000 = $20,000 divided by your capital of $10,000 = leverage of 2:1. Or you can choose not to, it depends on you.
Vital for the broker: Maximum leverage allowed
The maximum leverage you can apply (as opposed to how much you want to apply) is your broker’s decision:
The important thing you have to note in the above example is that you have utilized all the leverage you were allowed by the broker. This is vital. The broker takes a huge risk to lend you money and therefore they have certain rules which you must adhere to. There is a limit to what you can borrow from them. In the above example the limit is leverage of 2:1 or seen from another viewpoint margin of 50%. You must have at least half the value of your total transaction available in margin (in other words collateral in case you aren’t as hot a trader as you thought).
Margin is usually expressed as a percentage, while leverage is expressed as a ratio.
The marketing wizards of forex realized that the fact that they can offer very high leverage will be to their advantage to lure online investors from the traditional markets. Furthermore, many online investors’ portfolios were devastated by the 2000 crash and losses of up to 90% of formerly lucrative stock portfolios became commonplace – much of this leveraged through stock option schemes.
As a result they started to tout from the rooftops that leverage of 100:1, 200:1, and with the introduction of mini accounts, even 400:1 and 500:1 was available.
Terms like “trade with 100:1” leverage became the order of the day.
An unsuspecting and clueless online trading public swallowed this hook, line and sinker and were trading with “100:1 and 200:1 leverage”, not understanding what they are doing.
In reality the broker simply said “we will allow you to lever your margin up to 100:1, 200:1 or 400:1 at the absolute maximum, if you utilized all your borrowing power with us.”
But you must remember leverage is a double-edged sword. It can work for you and against you. And so a race started amongst the forex losers out there: where were the highest leverage, lowest margin and narrowest spreads being offered? As if this lethal combination would contribute to success...
So if you go to your friendly broker who offers both 100K lots and 10K mini lots you will find that on 100K lots you usually have a maximum of 100:1 leverage and on mini accounts 200:1 or 400:1.
So that is from the angle of the forex broker: They will allow maximum leverage of 100:1, 200:1, 400:1.
Vital for the trader: Minimum leverage needed
How does leverage look from your (the trader’s) side?
The question from your side is: How much margin do I need to trade a transaction of a certain value? The answer is simple, if they offer that I can lever my funds 100 times, then it is 1 / 100 = 1%, 1 /200 = 0.5%, 1/ 400 = 0.25%.
If we return to the stock market example the question of minimum leverage doesn’t play a role because if you have limited funds it would be prudent to buy low priced stocks in order to be able to invest in a basket of stocks.
But in the forex market where the minimum transaction values were initially 100K or 10K and a shell-shocked online trading public were lured to utilize the “advantages” of the high leverage with accounts of just $2,000 - $3,000 or mini accounts of $200 - $300, the minimum leverage certainly played a role.
To make all of this stick better I am going to use a real example:
A few years ago a now defunct tip service company did a survey on the typical forex trading account trading with 100K lots. The average sized account was an account of $6,000.
There is no question that the average trader will have to borrow money from the broker, ie leverage his funds. The question is “how much”? To do a minimum transaction of 100,000 you divide the 100,000 by 6,000 and there is the answer: 100,000 / 6,000 = 16.67.
In other words, he must borrow 16.67 times his money to do a minimum transaction and thus utilize a minimum leverage of 16.67:1. Just to do one silly trade.
Trading successfully: Know your real leverage
I am not going to be too technical about the exact leverage in these examples.
In reality if you have a US dollar account you should express the transaction value in US dollars before you calculate the exact leverage. So if you trade 100,000 GBPUSD, you actually trade dollars to the value of £100,000 which is at time of writing about $190,000. There is a big difference between $100,000 and $190,000. (As Warren Buffet said: Risk is not knowing what you are doing …)
With the flexibility offered by mini lots (10K), micro lots (1K) and variable lots (any size the trader defines) it is easier these days to determine one’s real leverage because you operate within the extremes of minimum leverage and maximum leverage.
Let’s return to the questions above:
Can you provide me with the information where I can get 1:1 leverage with the company you mention on page 108 of your book? I'm using a demo with only $1500 in the account with 200:1 leverage and I'm a bit worried about this even on 1 mini contract with one currency.
“Can you provide me with the information where I can get 1:1 leverage?”
Considering that leverage is transaction value divided by capital the important aspect is your capital and the minimum position size because to be in a position to trade 1:1 you must have at least the same capital as the minimum transaction. In your case you will have to trade with a broker that offers variable lots or micro lots not larger than 1,500 units.
“I'm using a demo with only $1500 in the account with 200:1 leverage”
You refer here to the maximum leverage or the maximum amount they will allow you to borrow. This is a fixed amount (percentage) applicable to all transactions and it does not affect your transactions at all, as long as you stay within this limit.
“I'm a bit worried about this even on 1 mini contract with one currency.”
First of all there is no need to worry about the “200;1 leverage”. It simply means it is the maximum you are allowed to trade, not what you are forced to trade (it’s your choice!). To trade the maximum would really be silly. Your real leverage if you trade one mini contract with $1,500 will be in the region of 6:1 or 7:1. (10,000 / 1,500).
It is interesting that you mention one currency also, because you must know that if you simultaneously trade 2 or 3 currencies your leverage increases. Say you trade one mini lot EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF, the total value of units = 30,000 (3 mini lots) and your capital is still $1,500.
Your leverage is thus 30,000 / 1,500 = 20:1. That’s high. You borrow 20 times what you have.
To trade forex profitably you need a $3.00
calculator not $300.00 a month charting service.
Here is the proof:
Let’s talk about the 200:1 “leverage”.
I hope by now you understand that this refers to the maximum the marketing wizard will allow you to borrow and that you can borrow much less to keep your leverage sane and your account afloat. But if you go to that extreme you must be really desperate or stupid and for all practical purposes you are already on the way out.
So what the forex marketing wizards call “leverage” is actually the margin requirement expressed as a ratio instead of as a percentage, which makes more sense and has absolutely no impact on your trading, unless you are already basically wiped out or about to be.
Let’s say a trader has $10,000 and trades at a broker which offers “flexible leverage”.
You can choose your “leverage”, 400:1, 200:1, 100:1 or 50:1. What they mean is you can choose your margin requirement (which will define the maximum you can borrow from them) to be 0.25%, 0.5%, 1% or 2% of the transaction value.
Trader decides to buy 5 mini lots EURUSD, ie €50,000 transaction value and the value of one pip on this transaction is $5.00. Let’s say he makes 100 pips profit which is $500 or 5% of his capital.
Does the flexible margin requirement, generally called “leverage” affect this outcome?
The answer is “no”.
*
Leverage = 400:1 = 0.25% = $25 X 5 = $125. After 100 pips move the Trader makes $500.
*
Leverage = 200:1 = 0.50% = $50 X 5 = $250. After 100 pips move the Trader makes $500.
*
Leverage = 100:1 = 1.00% = $100 X 5 = $500. After 100 pips move the Trader makes $500.
*
Leverage = 50:1 = 2.00% = $200 X 5 = $1000. After 100 pips move the Trader makes $500.
It is vitally important that you grasp this:
The only variable in this whole trading exercise is the real leverage, not the margin requirement.
In the example above the market moved 100 pips irrespective of the margin required.
The only differentiating factor is how much the trader borrows out of what is available. Depending on how much trader borrows he will have a different outcome.
In the example he borrowed 5 times his capital, was levered 5:1 and made $500.00. If he borrowed ten times his capital and was levered 10:1, he would have made on the same market move $1,000 or 10% of his capital. If he borrowed two times his capital 2:1, 2% and so on.
Margin – Leverage - Risk
People incorrectly think the risk they take has to do with the margin requirement, forex marketing wizard’s “leverage”.
How many times have you come across money management or risk management systems that say you must not risk more than x% of your capital on a trade?
Let’s say our Trader used this technique and he doesn’t “risk more than 10% of his capital” on a trade.
In the example above in the case of 2% margin (50:1 “leverage”) the Trader “uses” 10% of his capital (as margin). (Hopefully you now realize that in reality he risks his capital 10 times!)
So if the approach is that the risk is determined in terms of the margin that is being “put up” on a per trade basis the following applies: Out with the calculators!
Trader has $10,000 and is prepared to "risk 10%"
*
Leverage = 400:1 = 0.25% 10 / .25 = 40. That is, 10% “risk” will be 40 lots or 400K. Real leverage = 400 / 10,000 = 40:1. Pip value = $40.00.
*
Leverage = 200:1 = 0.50% 10 / .50 = 20. That is, 10% “risk” will be 20 lots or 200K. Real leverage = 200 / 10,000 = 20:1. Pip value = $20.00
*
Leverage = 100:1 = 1.00% 10 / 1.00 = 10. That is, 10% “risk” will be 10 lots or 100K. Real leverage = 100 / 10,000 = 10:1. Pip value = $10.00
*
Leverage = 50:1 = 2.00% 10 / 2.00 = 5. That is, 10% “risk” will be 5 lots or 50K. Real leverage = 50 / 10,000 = 5:1. Pip value = $5.00
This same risk management strategy then usually says, don’t risk more than x% of your capital in potential losses, therefore calculate your stop-loss point beforehand as a percentage of capital. So a stop-loss is typically set at 2% or 3% of capital.
In this case, if 2%, the maximum loss value will be $200 (2% of capital of $10,000). But as you have seen now, the first part incorrectly calculates pip value based on a bogus principle (for the leveraged trader), while the trader supposedly “risks” 10% of his capital in all four cases.
*
Leverage = 400:1, Pip value = $40.00, “risk 10%”. The stop-loss of 2% must be 5 pips.
*
Leverage = 200:1, Pip value = $20.00, “risk 10%”. The stop-loss of 2% must be 10 pips.
*
Leverage = 100:1, Pip value = $10.00, “risk 10%”. The stop-loss of 2% must be 20 pips.
*
Leverage = 50:1, Pip value = $5.00, “risk 10%”. The stop-loss of 2% must be 40 pips.
The above clearly demonstrates that a misunderstanding of leverage can be devastating to your chances of success.
It also demonstrates that many so-called money management systems are absolutely bogus - spreadsheet theory - and have nothing to do with real profitable trading.
Suffice it to say that while the “400:1 and 200:1” options aren’t utilized that much you will be tempted by the 100:1 and 50:1 options as suggested by almost all the experts out there, accompanied by the necessary 20, 30 and 40 pip stops that are hit all the time (followed by the inevitable market movement in your initial anticipated direction).
Summary
*
What is usually referred to as leverage is actually the margin required expressed as a ratio if you use all the borrowing power the broker will allow.
*
Real leverage is determined by dividing your capital into the value of your positions.
*
Real leverage can differ from trade to trade and increases with multiple simultaneous trades.
*
Margin required has no influence on your risk if you trade properly with modest leverage within your means and is not to be used as a risk calculating principle.
Forex Broker Guide Line
Introduction
The following is a list of questions you may like to consider before opening an account. You can use this checklist to narrow down your selection of companies that fit your requirements. You may also wish to refer to the forex broker ratings page on this site to read about traders unique experiences with particular brokers.
Important Note to Traders: GoForex recommends you do not open an account with a U.S. based forex broker regulated by the CFTC and NFA, due to excessive and over-bearing regulation imposed on retail forex brokers including reduced leverage levels, the "no-hedging" rule and the FIFO (first-in, first-out) rule which affects the way you trade.
The following links will also give you some background information on U.S. FCM's (Futures Commission Merchants).
* Selected Financial Data for FCM's
* NFA Background Affiliation Status
1. Word of Mouth
* What do other traders say about the broker? See Forex Broker Ratings & Forex Broker Reviews
* What is their customer service like?
2. Customer Protection
* Is the broker regulated?
* What regulatory organisation are they registered with and what protections does it afford the client?
* Are client funds protected against fraud?
* Are client funds protected against bankruptcy?
3. Execution
* What business model do they operate? i.e. Are they a Market Maker[?], ECN[?] or no-dealing desk broker[?]?
* How fast is their order execution?
* Are orders manually or automatically executed? [?]
* What is the maximum trade size before you have to request a quote?
* Are all clients trades offset?
4. Spread [?]
* How small is the spread?
* Is it fixed or variable?
5. Slippage [?]
* How much slippage can be expected in normal and fast moving markets?
6. Margin [?]
* What is the margin requirement? e.g. 0.25% margin = max 400:1 leverage [?]), 0.5% margin = max 200:1 leverage, 1% margin = max 100:1 leverage, 2% margin = max 50:1 leverage, etc.
* Does the margin requirement change for different currency pairs or days of the week?
* At what point does the broker issue a margin call?
* Is required margin the same for standard and mini accounts? [?]
7. Commissions
* Does the broker charge commissions? (Most market makers commissions are built into the spread)
8. Rollover Policy [?]
* Is there a minimum margin requirement in order to earn rollover interest?
* What are the swap rates like for going long or short in a particular currency pair?
* Are there any other conditions for earning rollover interest?
9. Trading Platform
* How intuitive and functional is it to use?
* Are there many disconnections during trading hours?
* How reliable is it during fast moving markets and news announcements?
* How many different currency pairs are available to trade?
* Does the broker offer an Application Programming Interface (API) to allow clients to automate their trading systems?
* Does the broker offer any other special features? (e.g. One click dealing, trading from the chart, trailing stops, mobile trading etc.)
10. Trading Account
* What is the minimum balance required to open an account?
* What is the minimum trade size?
* Can clients adjust the standard lot size traded? [?]
* Can clients earn interest on the unused margin in their account?
The following is a list of questions you may like to consider before opening an account. You can use this checklist to narrow down your selection of companies that fit your requirements. You may also wish to refer to the forex broker ratings page on this site to read about traders unique experiences with particular brokers.
Important Note to Traders: GoForex recommends you do not open an account with a U.S. based forex broker regulated by the CFTC and NFA, due to excessive and over-bearing regulation imposed on retail forex brokers including reduced leverage levels, the "no-hedging" rule and the FIFO (first-in, first-out) rule which affects the way you trade.
The following links will also give you some background information on U.S. FCM's (Futures Commission Merchants).
* Selected Financial Data for FCM's
* NFA Background Affiliation Status
1. Word of Mouth
* What do other traders say about the broker? See Forex Broker Ratings & Forex Broker Reviews
* What is their customer service like?
2. Customer Protection
* Is the broker regulated?
* What regulatory organisation are they registered with and what protections does it afford the client?
* Are client funds protected against fraud?
* Are client funds protected against bankruptcy?
3. Execution
* What business model do they operate? i.e. Are they a Market Maker[?], ECN[?] or no-dealing desk broker[?]?
* How fast is their order execution?
* Are orders manually or automatically executed? [?]
* What is the maximum trade size before you have to request a quote?
* Are all clients trades offset?
4. Spread [?]
* How small is the spread?
* Is it fixed or variable?
5. Slippage [?]
* How much slippage can be expected in normal and fast moving markets?
6. Margin [?]
* What is the margin requirement? e.g. 0.25% margin = max 400:1 leverage [?]), 0.5% margin = max 200:1 leverage, 1% margin = max 100:1 leverage, 2% margin = max 50:1 leverage, etc.
* Does the margin requirement change for different currency pairs or days of the week?
* At what point does the broker issue a margin call?
* Is required margin the same for standard and mini accounts? [?]
7. Commissions
* Does the broker charge commissions? (Most market makers commissions are built into the spread)
8. Rollover Policy [?]
* Is there a minimum margin requirement in order to earn rollover interest?
* What are the swap rates like for going long or short in a particular currency pair?
* Are there any other conditions for earning rollover interest?
9. Trading Platform
* How intuitive and functional is it to use?
* Are there many disconnections during trading hours?
* How reliable is it during fast moving markets and news announcements?
* How many different currency pairs are available to trade?
* Does the broker offer an Application Programming Interface (API) to allow clients to automate their trading systems?
* Does the broker offer any other special features? (e.g. One click dealing, trading from the chart, trailing stops, mobile trading etc.)
10. Trading Account
* What is the minimum balance required to open an account?
* What is the minimum trade size?
* Can clients adjust the standard lot size traded? [?]
* Can clients earn interest on the unused margin in their account?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)